Failed Breakout Revives Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Tug-of-War

Failed Breakout Revives Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Tug-of-War

Bitcoin’s retreat from Sunday’s high of $7,779 has poured cold water over the bull mood generated by the weekend’s positive price action and neutralized the immediate outlook.

BTC closed on Sunday (as per UTC) above a key falling trendline resistance level, signaling a short-term bullish-to-bearish trend change. A bullish crossover between the 5-day and 10-day moving average (MA) also favored a short-term positive price action.

However, bitcoin suffered a rising wedge breakdown (bearish pattern) in the U.S. hours on Monday, signaling that the corrective rally from the recent low of $7,040 had ended.

In the end, the failed breakout was no surprise, as low trading volumes had warned of a bull trap.

At press time, the cryptocurrency is changing hands at a four-day low of $7,426 on Bitfinex, down 2.5 percent over 24 hours.

Daily chart

The above chart shows that bitcoin is back inside a falling channel and risks a quick drop to $6,980 (triangle support) if the bulls fail to defend the support at $7,260 (May 24 low).

A false breakout is usually considered a strong bearish signal. Further, the rising-wedge breakdown as seen in the 4-hour chart below, also indicates the corrective rally has ended and prices could soon revisit the recent low of $7,040.

4-hour chart

Still, the overall outlook may be more neutral, with bitcoin creating a doji candle on the 4-hour chart above, signaling indecision in the marketplace.

If the current 4-hour candle closes below $7,732, it could bolster the already bearish technicals (failed breakout). Meanwhile, if the current 4-hour candle closes above $7,500, bitcoin could revisit $7,700.

View

  • Bitcoin’s drop back inside the falling channel as seen in the daily chart indicates the immediate upward pressure has eased.
  • Acceptance below $7,260 would confirm the corrective rally has ended and could yield a drop to $6,980 (triangle support).
  • A daily close below $6,980 would signal a revival of the sell-off from the record high of $19,891. In this case, BTC could revisit and possibly break below the February low of $6,000.
  • A short-term bullish revival is seen only above Sunday’s high of $7,779.

Tug-of-war image via Shutterstock

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